Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Rage Racer]

Now it's really almost the whole of the country supports the revolution... Except for Crimea. This peninsula is now waving Russian flags. Yanukovich is now somewhere in Sevastopol, but exact location is unknown.

 

[JMoney]

I don't don't think they can be classified as "protestors"; protestors hold signs and yell. They don't burn buildings, steal weapons, and cause chaos.

The Arab Spring was a different matter; those people had good reasons to rebel against their governments.

 

[Dotini]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26333587#

The current true facts according to the BBC.

They are worried about separtism, and want it punished.

 

[Rage Racer]

They are no more just "protestors", they are now revolutioners. Now, even Russian newspapers call it "the first successful coup d'etat in Europe for the last 46 years". English wiki calls it a revolution, too. Yanukovich is now on the run. Somewhere in Crimea, the last region loyal to him.

The Crimeans are now forming militia in Sevastopol to defend the city from advancing "fascists".

The Arab Spring was a different matter; those people had good reasons to rebel against their governments.

Why Arabs had but Ukrainians didn't?

 

[Dotini]

Why Arabs had but Ukrainians didn't?

There may always be good reasons to rebel against governments. The great trick is to avoid being crushed.

In 1956, the Hungarians had an initially successful revolution. They were crushed.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_Revolution_of_1956

 

[DK]

They are no more just "protestors", they are now revolutioners. Now, even Russian newspapers call it "the first successful coup d'etat in Europe for the last 46 years". English wiki calls it a revolution, too. Yanukovich is now on the run. Somewhere in Crimea, the last region loyal to him.

I guess Yanukovich now holds the dubious honour of being one of the few men to be deposed by revolutions twice.

 

[Dotini]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/26/world/europe/ukraine.html?_r=0
"Ukraine is now hurtling toward default. The value of the currency, the hryvnia, has fallen sharply, and the country’s bond rating has been downgraded so steeply by ratings agencies that the country effectively can no longer borrow on the international markets.

Foreign reserves have plummeted, and the Ukrainian government will soon be unable to pay public salaries or pensions. In a statement on Monday, the acting finance minister said the country would need a staggering $35 billion in assistance between now and the end of next year."

 

[Rage Racer]

I guess Yanukovich now holds the dubious honour of being one of the few men to be deposed by revolutions twice.

Twice? Nah, only once.

Meanwhile: Russian military spotted in Yalta, Crimea.
A few army vehicles (trucks, BTR's and an UAZ jeep) with Russian plates were heading from Sevastopol.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Excellent, they're clearly distributing t-shirts from the Olympic Legacy. We did something similar after London but without anywhere near the efficiency. We could never afford midnight landings at Sevastopol followed by the ruthless erection of a ring of steel around the friendly separatist territory.

Seriously though...is there a genuinely weighty Russian movement through the Crimea or is this potentially normal every-day 'allied' road traffic?

 

[Rage Racer]

Well, Sevastopol actually hosts a Russian Naval base. These troops are probably the Naval Infantry. The last digits on the plate of that truck - 90 - tell that the vehicle belongs to the Black Sea Fleet.
There's some info that they are coming to protect the Russian military objects in Crimea due to unstable situation in Ukraine. Russia is not authorized to start a war here, but if someone tries to invade the bases and seize the equipment - these soldiers will shoot back.

Or... some people assume that Putin is going to do what Yanukovich hesitated to do. But I think this is less likely, because the Kremlin seems to be already given up on Yanuk.

 

[zzz_pt]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/26/w...icmst=1388552400000&bicmet=1420088400000&_r=1

 

[Igano]

I heard the new laws that got voted from the temporary government. Please tell me it was a joke?

 

[prisonermonkeys]

The fears of separatists rising up appear to be well-founded, as pro-Russian groups take control of government buildings in Crimea:

http://m.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26364891

There does not appear to be an easy solution to this, short of giving Crimea to Russia, then measuring an area of land exactly the same size as Crimea in Russia and giving it to the Ukraine.

 

[Rage Racer]

I heard the new laws that got voted from the temporary government. Please tell me it was a joke?

It's not a temporary government, it's the same government as it was before (the Rada), but without the president. Yes, they make new laws, and there's a rumor that they're voting against their will, because the Rada is being pressured by the Right Sector.

There does not appear to be an easy solution to this, short of giving Crimea to Russia, then measuring an area of land exactly the same size as Crimea in Russia and giving it to the Ukraine.

There's an easier solution. Ukraine is suffering serious financial crisis, and when it comes to default, Russia may claim debts to pay, and Crimea would be an excellent repay.

 

[Dotini]

I heard the new laws that got voted from the temporary interim government. Please tell me it was a joke?

The fears of separatists rising up appear to be well-founded, as pro-Russian groups take control of government buildings in Crimea:

Well, gee whiz, what a surprise!
We are learning once again that you simply cannot loose the dogs of revolution and have a nice, well-behaved result. Someone's going to get their hair mussed.

 

[Rage Racer]

The Crimean parliament in Simferopol was seized by seriously armed operators: they were carrying AK's, SVD sniper rifles and even RPG's (!). A stun grenade was thrown at journalists (9:40).
Later (10:30), a convoy of Russian BTR-80's was found heading to Simferopol. SBU said they're "coming to intercept them". "Our agents will do something to prevent them from breaking our laws."
11:34 - a witness reported that the traffic police has stopped the convoy, and the BTR's backed off.

12:46 - the people who seized the parliament demanded a referendum about Crimea's independency.

More news: Yanukovich turned out escaped to Russia and asked to "ensure his safety".
http://rt.com/news/yanukovich-press-conference-russia-059/

 

[Mustangmiha]

It doesn't matter if a government is crap, the people have no right to overthrow it when they can change it in the next election. I hope Russia gets involved, stops the rebels, and stabilizes Ukraine

I seriously hope this is sarcasm.

 

[Dotini]

It doesn't matter if a government is crap, the people have no right to overthrow it when they can change it in the next election. I hope Russia gets involved, stops the rebels, and stabilizes Ukraine, because if it doesn't this will probably end up like Egypt.

The people always have the right, by force of sufficient might, to overthrow any government anywhere, no matter if democratically elected and no matter the loss of life. The revolutions in France, America and more recently in Egypt establish this to a fare-thee-well.

"Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun" - Mao Zedong

 

[terminator363]

There's an easier solution. Ukraine is suffering serious financial crisis, and when it comes to default, Russia may claim debts to pay, and Crimea would be an excellent repay.

This actually sounds like a really good solution, all sides win (except for Ukranians living in Crimea [40%])

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

This actually sounds like a really good solution, all sides win (except for Ukranians living in Crimea [40%])

Who could be given the option to move to Ukraine before it (Crimea) becomes Russian...

 

[BobK]

...at whose expense?

 

[TenEightyOne]

...at whose expense?

Normally it's the sponsor nations who create new 'countries' and pay for the relocation. When the British and Nazis set up the beginnings of Israel (or at least the mandate diaspora) they funded much of the diaspora. The Nazis clearly had a slightly different agenda although Britain and the US went along with that until 1937.

I believe that Britain and her Indian treasury also bore much of the cost for relocation during the creation of Pakistan?

If a Crimean state were a feasible option (which I'm not sure it is) then the cost would be borne by the EU and Russia, I imagine. There's an agreement which will never happen

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Pro-Russian supporters have now taken control of an airport in Crimea. Russian forces have established a presence on the peninsula, which Kiev is understandably unhappy about. Moscow's explanation seems to be that they are trying to to keep those supporters in check, standing by to keep the supporters from doing anything more, though the report I read is a little unclear.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Pro-Russian supporters have now taken control of an airport in Crimea. Russian forces have established a presence on the peninsula, which Kiev is understandably unhappy about. Moscow's explanation seems to be that they are trying to to keep those supporters in check, standing by to keep the supporters from doing anything more, though the report I read is a little unclear.

Russian forces already had a significant presence there.

The difficulty is that Russia has a policing remit around their bases as part of their agreement with the Ukraine government. Sensibly that's going to be a paragraph saying that a base can defend itself against civil unrest.

Who knows what status that agreement now has although one would think that Ukraine's contractual commitments stnad for now. Lets hope the Russians restrain themselves to that... the situation for Ukraine is complex enough as it is.

The best hope is that the country quickly forms a pathway to democratic elections (or even a pre-referendum) to help the new government establish legitimacy (which it arguably doesn't have in the required sense) and to establish order that satisfies the democratic majority.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Russian forces already had a significant presence there.

This appears to be something more - armed gunmen have taken control of an airport and an airstrip, and nobody seems to know exactly who they are; some reports say they are pro-Russian supporters, while others suggest they are Russian military. Whatever the case, the interim government has pretty much accused Moscow of invading.

The best hope is that the country quickly forms a pathway to democratic elections (or even a pre-referendum) to help the new government establish legitimacy (which it arguably doesn't have in the required sense) and to establish order that satisfies the democratic majority.

The problem is that they need to support the minority as well - those wanting to join the EU will not accept a move towards Russia, while those in favour of strengthening the relationship with Russia will not accept the move towards the EU. And judging by the map posted a few pages ago, it's pretty much divided the country neatly in two - and if not evenly, then the minority is still large enough that they could be counted in the millions, not thousands.

Perhaps if a new constitution could be formed, then Crimea could be declared an autonomous region - technically a part of the Ukraine and ultimately answerable to Kiev, but with greater freedom to govern itself.

 

[ITCC_Andrew]

The map posted showed language dispersion, not population sentiment, as far as I can tell.

I don't think anyone has posted anything with proof of Crimean sentiment towards Russia. It's much the same as me speaking English, but not feeling loyal to USA just because we share the language... Which we don't, because Z is zed.

 

[Rage Racer]

This appears to be something more - armed gunmen have taken control of an airport and an airstrip, and nobody seems to know exactly who they are; some reports say they are pro-Russian supporters, while others suggest they are Russian military. Whatever the case, the interim government has pretty much accused Moscow of invading.

These "supporters" don't seem to be holding guns for the first or second time. They are definetly professionals. Equipped with helmets and armor vests, armed with AK's, but having no insignia. Arrived on Kamaz trucks with no license plates and a couple of BTR's.

The witnesses also say they were speaking clean Russian language, without any Ukrainian or Caucasian accent. "The airport security commander said that his people were politely (lol!) told to leave the area."
Their goals were unknown (but it's possibly the Ukrainian Air Force fighters located on the airfield), but now, the airport works normally again.

Perhaps if a new constitution could be formed, then Crimea could be declared an autonomous region - technically a part of the Ukraine and ultimately answerable to Kiev, but with greater freedom to govern itself.

Yanukovich agreed to do this on his press conference in Rostov-on-Don today. The wider autonomy can possibly also mean greater presence of the Russian military in Crimea... in exchange for RF helping Yanuk to regain the office?..

Also, Yanuk's fail on the press conference today:

Yanukovich: Ukraine is our strategical partner!
Putin: What the hell are you saying? Why'd you take my speech sheet?

 

[JMoney]

Yep, Russia is now involved, and America's government is making yet another empty threat. We'd be complete idiots to get involved- Ukraine's revolution has little to nothing to do with us. Let Europe get involved if it wants to, but it won't win any war without our help.

 

[Rage Racer]

A video from a surveillance camera in the Crimean government building.

Look at the equipment. Modified AK-74's, RPK's, SVD-S, PKP Pecheneg with a scope, RPG-26 and... an AGS-30 automatic grenade launcher (at 17:00)? Looks like they supposed very heavy resistance.
But look how polite they were. Didn't even damage anything. The smoke grenade in the beginning was probably an accident, they must have apologized to the security for this.

They are obviously not rebels. And they don't even look like regular army. Probably a special force (Spetsnaz?).
Yet some more photos from Crimea:

According to the lettering, it's a restaurant

Mi-24's? (possibly fake)

Another BTR convoy

Also some reports of transport planes (Il-76?) landing on the runway of the seized airport.
Something real strange is going on...

 

[TenEightyOne]

Yep, Russia is now involved, and America's government is making yet another empty threat. We'd be complete idiots to get involved- Ukraine's revolution has little to nothing to do with us. Let Europe get involved if it wants to, but it won't win any war without our help.

America's obligations in treaty are quite complicated, they could be requested to act under their membership of the UN or NATO and most particularly by their undertakings in the Budapest Memorandum to support Ukraine's independence.

Technically if Russia is seen to intervene then America may be bound to take some action. Realistically I think that's a very unlikely end-result. I hope that sensible diplomacy will take precedence over posturing.

Every Ukrainian's vote must be counted fairly so that full legitimacy can be restored to the parliament in the eyes of the country and of the world. Crimean MPs aren't unilaterally coming out in favour of either the 'old' or 'separatist' regimes and are continuing to attend votes quite normally in the body of parliament.

The people of Ukraine seem keen to see a sensible, self-regulated future. If they express a genuine desire (through open democratic process) to form two constituent states within Ukraine which seems the most appropriate likely solution if separatism is a desire of the people, at least according to some Prof on the radio today who seemed, like, well clever.

Russia has a right to protect her assets in Ukraine and should also consider requests from the Ukrainian parliament for police aid if required. Other than that I don't feel she should be acting on foreign soil at all, although I don't know the terms of any military treaties that she has with Ukraine.

@Rage Racer ; the same radio Professor said that securing the airports was a logical step for troop movements. That was just after the airport was secured by armed men who identified themselves to a BBC reporter on the scene as "normal Crimeans. We are teachers, we are from offices, we are a brigade to protect our town from damage. We are just people".

They were very well armed though, and that's what counted.